A Year of Change: A Look at Labour’s First Year in Government

Exactly one year ago, the political landscape of the UK shifted dramatically. Labour swept into power with a landslide victory, ending 14 years of Conservative rule. Keir Starmer entered No.10 on a platform of ‘change’, commanding a working majority of 165. But a year on, that momentum has slowed – and fast.

Many expected Starmer to enjoy the traditional ‘honeymoon period’ that should follow a decisive electoral win. Instead, his government faced early turbulence, with polling telling a stark story. Labour has seen a steady decline in support since the General Election. According to Politico’s Poll of Polls, Labour now trails behind Reform UK, whose meteoric rise has seen it climb from 14% on election day to 29% – while Labour has slipped to second place on 23% from an election high of 34%. The Conservatives have dropped further still, now in third place on 17%. In the aftermath of their defeat, the Conservatives elected a new leader – Kemi Badenoch – tasked with rebuilding the party’s credibility. However, a YouGov poll in June showed that just 10% of the public view her as a prime minister in waiting, while 81% believe the Conservatives are in a ‘weak state’.

May’s local elections marked the first significant test of the Labour Government – the results were sobering, and not just for Labour. The Conservatives lost control of all 16 councils they were defending, with Reform UK winning 10.  Reform UK also gained another MP in the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election, as well as two Mayors in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire. Labour narrowly held on to three mayoralties, losing Cambridgeshire & Peterborough to the Conservatives.

Starmer himself has struggled to connect with the public. Just five months into his premiership, he was named the most unpopular Prime Minister since the 1970s. Polling expert Sir John Curtice recently noted that no incoming Prime Minister has had such a difficult start. After a year in office, the question still looms – what does Starmer stand for?

Not helping answer that question is the number of u-turns by the Government. Welfare cuts were proposed, then significantly watered down to prevent a Government defeat by Labour backbenchers, leaving a £4.5bn funding gap. Winter fuel payment reforms were introduced, then partially reinstated, creating a further £1.5bn gap. And perhaps most strikingly, Starmer reversed his position on an inquiry into grooming gangs – despite previously claiming such an inquiry would be ‘jumping on a far-right bandwagon’. These policy shifts have contributed to a growing perception of inconsistency, fuelling public uncertainty.

But part of this turbulence reflects a deeper truth: governing is hard. It’s easy to criticise from the opposition benches; far harder to deliver change from behind the Downing Street door. The realities of government – balancing competing interests, managing the civil service, navigating economic constraints – have clearly tested Labour’s ability to translate promises into workable policy. This challenge has been compounded by the inexperience of the new Cabinet. With only three ministers having served in government before, and the Prime Minister himself only elected to Parliament in 2015, Labour is learning in real time the difference between idealism in opposition and compromise in power. It would be unfair though to pin every economic or policy challenge on the Starmer Government. The unpredictable global picture – ongoing conflict in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and protectionist trade policies in the US, to name a few – have created serious challenges for him and other leaders across the world.

Labour came into power warning of a £22bn ‘black hole’ in the nation’s finances. Their first Budget – marked by the largest tax rise in modern UK history – was framed as a necessary correction course. Headline measures included raising employer national insurance to 15%, a move likely to have unintended far-reaching economic consequences. Surveys have found that businesses across the country plan to cut staff and raise prices as a result of the increase. Inflation currently stands at 3.4%, offering some relief compared to the 11.1% peak in October 2022, but with the Bank of England’s 2% target still some way off, fiscal conditions remain tight. Last month’s Spending Review painted a mixed picture: big winners included defence, health and housing, while transport and policing faced cuts – raising concerns about the delivery of vital public services and long-term growth.

Despite these headwinds, Labour has shown a strong policy focus on the built environment – one of the areas where its vision has been most coherent and ambitious. Its target of delivering 1.5m new homes by 2029 has raised eyebrows over how achievable it actually is, but it signals clear intent. More importantly, this ambition is supported by a suite of policies, including planning reform, funding boosts to the Affordable Homes Programme, and a clear narrative around the need to ‘Get Britain Building’.

While Starmer has struggled to find his footing domestically, he has been far more active – and arguably more successful – on the international stage. He has worked to reposition the UK globally, striking an EU reset deal to improve post-Brexit relations, committing to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, and leading diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine through a self-described ‘coalition of the willing’. Notably, his collaboration with French President Emmanuel Macron has led to some describing it as a ‘bromance’. He has also hosted several high-profile international summits in the UK, projecting British leadership abroad. Despite controversy over the Chagos Islands agreement, Starmer has leaned into a statesman-like role, drawing comparisons to Wildavsky’s ‘two presidencies’ theory – strong abroad, weak at home. For a Prime Minister battling domestic turbulence and lukewarm public support, international diplomacy has become a vital space to show authority and purpose.

In the coming weeks, LCA’s Insight Team will be unpacking Labour’s progress on what it has (or hasn’t) achieved – in a new blog series focused particularly on the built environment. These blogs will also look ahead to the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. We will be joined by colleagues from across LCA, who will contribute their own expertise and perspectives on planning, housing, infrastructure, transport, and more.

One year in, the big question isn’t just whether Labour can build the homes and infrastructure Britain needs – but whether it can rebuild trust and its own momentum in the process.