Away from the spotlight, Lib Dems target steady gains

In July 2024, the Liberal Democrats were jubilant. Their 72 seats won at the General Election represented the party’s largest ever haul and the best result for a liberal party since 1923. Today the party is asking itself how to build on this success as we approach the local elections in May.

At the time of writing, the Lib Dems are polling at around 12.7% nationally – virtually unchanged since the General Election – and are defending 576 councillors, mainly across London and Southern England. The party’s objectives could be broadly defined as follows: hold onto what they have and make incremental gains.

Following their electoral success in 2024, however, the Lib Dems have garnered comparatively little attention. The media has focused on Labour’s struggles in Government; Reform’s consistent topping of the polls; the Tories’ attempts to recover from a historic loss; and the surging Greens challenging Labour from the Left. The lack of interest in the Lib Dems may seem odd, given that they have ten times as many MPs as Reform, eighteen times the Greens, and nearly two-thirds the seats of the Tories.

The party’s next steps are not entirely clear. Ideologically, should the party move to the centre-right to pick up even more disillusioned votes from a Tory party that’s focused on Reform? Or stay in the centre and pick up disillusioned voters from the Labour party? The party’s local election launch suggests a strategy of appealing to as many voters as possible, as well as referencing the US President in an attempt to go on the offensive with Reform UK.

The Lib Dem Machine

The Lib Dems are extremely proficient in hyper-local, ward-level campaigning. The party’s approach to these local elections – messaging, key issues, strategy – is tailored to what works locally and can vary from one race to another. Ed Davey’s local election launch suggests that this year will be no different. This was demonstrated in the last election, where anti-Tory tactical voting resulted in a highly efficient spread of their votes around the country. The party’s electoral success spanned the entire nation: leafy, affluent suburban seats in the Home Counties and southwest London; rural areas of southwest England and Wales; and pockets of strength in Scotland.

While voters frequently use local elections to protest the government of the day, parties that govern only locally tend to avoid backlash. While the Lib Dems may be considered part of ‘The Establishment’, they have benefitted as much as anyone from the decline of the two-party system.

The Lib Dems are also notoriously difficult to dislodge after electoral success – a fact recognised by both main parties. The statistics support this view. After reaching a nadir of 1800 councillors nationally in 2015 – the last year of the coalition government – the Lib Dems have slowly but steadily increased their representation at every local election, reaching over 3200 councillors in 2025. Expect more of the same in May.

South West London stronghold

The bulk of Lib Dem councillors standing for re-election – and thus the primary focus of the party’s efforts – are in London. The party’s support in Greater London is strongest in the Southwest, where it controls three Borough Councils outright: Kingston, Richmond, and Sutton. The party often uses local election success as a springboard for winning seats in Westminster; the party’s six London MPs are all in the Southwest. These areas have a lot in common: compared to the rest of the capital, they are notably less ethnically diverse; are lower-density and have an abundance of green and open spaces; and are relatively prosperous, with low levels of deprivation.

While they are strongly favoured to hold Kingston and Richmond comfortably, the Lib Dems face a stiff challenge from Reform in Sutton (the area had a Tory MP from 2015-24). The party’s main electoral target is Merton; currently held by Labour, but in many respects similar to the areas the Lib Dems already hold. With 17 Merton councillors, the party needs to pick up 11 to take control of the council.  Gareth Roberts, London Assembly member and leader of Richmond Council, has said there is a “distinct possibility” that the Lib Dems could become the second largest party in London in terms of controlled councils. Although that outcome may seem unrealistic, it is not entirely out of the question given the number of ‘No Overall Control’ councils that are expected.

YIMBY and NIMBY

The Liberal Democrats’ attitude towards new housing and infrastructure developments is characterised by a significant schism between rhetoric nationally and reality locally. Nationally, the party is as almost as YIMBY as they come. The 2024 general election manifesto pledged to deliver 380,000 homes annually, including 150,000 for social rent. Considering how the government has struggled to deliver even 300,000 homes annually over the past 18 months, this is an ambitious goal.

However, at a local level – where the party wields actual power – the approach to housebuilding can be varied. Local opposition to new development is high and this is reflected in the actions of the councillors who sit on planning committees. Of the four local authority areas in London that had the fewest new housing starts in 2024-25, three were run by the Lib Dems. It should be noted that the party’s opposition to development is not necessarily ideological but stems from a genuine belief in localism and local democracy.

In every local election since 2015, the Lib Dems have made slow and steady gains. We can expect more of the same in May – albeit under the radar, as the media’s focus will likely be on Reform and Green gains at the expense of the Tories and Labour. Where the party makes gains, we can also expect them to be resilient and difficult for other parties to dislodge. For developers, good local engagement is always important; in a Lib Dem-run local authority, it is indispensable.

Expert insight, intelligence gathering and knowledge sharing is in LCA’s lifeblood and ensures that our clients receive the highest quality strategic advice and counsel. Through regular and customised briefings and events, we help clients navigate through what can be a confusing and fast-changing landscape. If you’d like to discuss what any of these developments could mean for your organisation or your projects, contact us at insight@thisislca.com