Labour has little to win, but a lot to lose

We will look back on 7 May 2026 as a defining moment in the life of this Labour government.

Labour enters the local elections as a party down in the polls, defending a dominant electoral map won during the decline of the Conservatives. The uncomfortable truth is that there is little new ground to take, but a great deal to lose.

For Keir Starmer, the stakes are profound. A stable, defensible outcome allows him to press on with the Plan for Change. Severe losses, however, risk tipping Labour into the familiar Westminster merry-go-round, as leadership hopefuls position themselves for what comes next.

The backdrop is hardly forgiving. Labour has lost the Gorton and Denton by-election to the Greens. It has endured multiple crises at the heart of government. Voters believe the benefits promised at the 2024 general election have yet to materialise, with an IPSOS poll at the end of last year finding 59% blame Starmer and Reeves for the UK’s economic woes. The decision to u-turn on cancelling elections in 30 areas has only added to the opposition parties’ campaign literature.

None of this is lost on the Labour leadership, local candidates, or the party faithful. Despite the scale of the task, Labour still has organisation, incumbency and a ground operation that should not be underestimated.

“Pride in Britain”

At the Labour Local Government Association conference in Warwick, the slogan “Pride in Britain” dominated party literature. The messaging was unmistakably local from candidates: campaign on local delivery and on reputation.

Politicians and members alike recognise that their best chance of retaining council seats across the country is their local candidate, not their national representatives in government. Win on what your council has done, not on what’s happening in Westminster. I wouldn’t say this is a departure from past governments’ strategies, but it does shine a light on the internal mood.

The electoral warning signs are already visible. In London, the trend is particularly concerning. Of the 40 council by-elections Labour has defended in the capital since the general election, it has lost 11. The squeeze is coming from all sides of the political spectrum, and losses in historically safe Labour boroughs are an early indicator of how London could decide Starmer’s future.

The red dominance of the current electoral map means expectation management will be critical. Labour will lose councillors, that is inevitable. The question is where, and to whom. If polling and by-election patterns are borne out, the answer could be everywhere, in every direction.

A Changing Capital

This is a defensive election for Labour in London. Success would mean retaining most of its inner and outer boroughs won at the last local elections. Failure would mean fragmentation no longer being confined to polling, instead, visibly seeing it in council chambers.

British politics is now multi-party politics, particularly in the capital. Labour is fending off pressure from all directions. Can it withstand the Greens in inner London (especially in Hackney); the Conservatives seeking to reclaim Barnet, Westminster, and Wandsworth; the Liberal Democrats in Merton; and Reform UK targeting outer London boroughs such as Barking and Dagenham?

Labour’s success will depend on retaining support from the last general election. In January, YouGov found that 50% of 2024 Labour voters plan to stick with the party. Its focus will be on mobilising these voters to head to the ballot box in May. But can it also prevent younger, diverse inner London voters drifting to the Greens, while retaining older homeowners in outer boroughs wary of tax and development pressures? The risk is that this broad coalition is showing signs of fraying at both edges.

Fragmentation also increases the likelihood of No Overall Control (NOC) councils and coalition administrations. A particularly bad night could see even high-profile Labour boroughs slip into NOC. If Starmer’s own council in Camden were to fall out of majority control, the symbolism would be hard to ignore.

Yes In London’s Back Yard

Local elections directly shape the built environment. Changes in council control alter planning committees and development priorities.

Labour’s YIMBY instincts will remain intact. The UK has an interventionist Labour government and an interventionist Labour Mayor of London. Coupled with a 1.5m homes target and a “build, baby, build” mantra, housing delivery sits at the centre of the Plan for Change.

Weaker local control could produce stronger central intervention. Fewer Labour councils would increase pressure on Secretary of State Steve Reed MP and Sadiq Khan to deploy intervention powers to push through developments, which they haven’t been hesitant to do to date. We have also seen the Mayor of London working with government to adjust the fast-track affordable housing threshold to accelerate planning decisions – expected to come into effect this year.

The political risk is complexity. A more fragmented council landscape will not end development, but it will change how it happens with increased reliance on cross-party engagement. Read my article last month where I explored the challenge for business.

Doom and gloom? You’re in government

It is a difficult run-in for Labour, but it is worth remembering that the party is in power. Governing is hard, particularly in a difficult fiscal environment and an unforgiving media cycle, but it still wields the powers of the state. A clearer, more compelling articulation of economic growth, development and public service reform would give Labour a framework to start a political resurgence.

These local elections are unlikely to be triumphant, but if Labour can retain a good proportion of its London strongholds, May will be remembered as turbulence. If not, the little to win, but a lot to lose diagnosis will prove uncomfortably accurate.

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