The Polls Are Open – But What Might Happen Next?

Polls are open in the first major electoral test since Keir Starmer swept into Downing Street last July.  Across England, 23 local authorities will elect 1,641 councillors, while four metro mayors and two local mayors up are for grabs. If that wasn’t enough, there’s also the small matter of a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn & Helsby.

Mid-term elections are as much (if not more) about the public’s views on the government of the day as they are about local issues like potholes, fly tipping and bin collections. And with Labour and the Conservatives both struggling in the polls, it looks likely to be a difficult few days for Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.

As the current poll of polls shows, Labour, Conservative, Reform are hovering in the mid to low 20s, with the Lib Dems and Greens back in the teens. This is unprecedented and with our first past the post voting system, makes predicting outcomes very difficult indeed. Elections will be won and lost by the finest of margins, and some of the Mayoral contests may even be won with under 30% of the vote. In the words of elections guru Professor John Curtice, “we are living in an era of 5-party politics”.

It’s also true that we’re living in the age of the fed up voter – recent polling by Ipsos reveals the degree of disillusionment with all the parties. But key in this election is which party’s supporters are most disillusioned and who is better able to pick up this support. Understandably, Labour is in the voters’ crosshairs as the governing party.

But context for today’s elections is also important. Geography matters – elections are taking place in mostly rural and semi-rural areas that have tended to lean Conservative. Few urban areas are voting (for example, London has no citywide elections until May 2026).

The last time these elections were held in 2021, the Conservatives did very well indeed. As a result, they’re defending 19 councils (16 with a majority, three more that have Tory leaders). This means, particularly with the party struggling in the polls, the Tories have further to fall, with some estimates suggesting they might lose up half of their councillors. Badenoch will be privately cursing Boris Johnson’s post Covid vaccine popularity four years ago.

Labour is defending a relatively small number of councillors – a good result for them would be to stay with roughly the same amount. Starmer’s main anxiety will be the mayoral contests and the by-election in Runcorn. Most pundits are predicting Reform will sensationally nab Runcorn – a dramatic turnaround from what was a healthy Labour majority less than a year ago.

Labour is also under pressure in the West of England and Cambridge and Peterborough mayoral races, not helped by the change in the voting system from 2nd preference to first-past-the-post since these were last held (although interestingly Labour has not yet changed the voting system back – might today’s results force their hand?).

The Lib Dems and Greens will be desperate to exploit voter unhappiness with both Labour and the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are looking to build on their strong showing across the south of England in last year’s General Election and cement their position as the rival to the Tories in the Home Counties. But even the Greens will be hopeful of breakthroughs in rural areas as they look to prove they can win outside the big university towns and cities.

Yet it’s Nigel Farage’s Reform that looks likely to be the big winners. Going from nothing to hundreds of councillors, bagging a couple of mayors and winning the Runcorn by-election would be a sensational result that will send shockwaves through the political establishment. But today could herald a sea-change for Reform – the moment they switch from being a party of protest to one that suddenly finds itself in power, running things, under scrutiny and being held accountable. Some will argue that this is no bad thing, perhaps basing this view on an assumption that Reform will struggle and be found out. That may well be a dangerous assumption to make – we shall see.

Another fallout from today will be how Labour and the Conservatives respond. For the Government, I’d be surprised if it knocks them off course. Little would suggest there’s going to be any major change of policy direction on the back of the results. What we may well find is growing anxiety on the Labour backbenches, particularly those MPs in areas where Reform does well, fearful about their own seats at the next General Election.

A summer Cabinet reshuffle is widely expected, and a bad night for Labour may well push Starmer into a more radical shake up of his front bench. And with the Spending Review now just weeks away, more pressure may build on the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, to relax her self-imposed fiscal rules and get out the cheque book.

How the Tories respond at the local level in areas where no party wins a majority will be fascinating. Will the Conservatives form administrations with Reform, and, if so, could this herald something more formal by way of a pact at a national level as some senior figures such as Robert Jenrick and Ben Houchen have suggested?

Also, while Badenoch has struggled in her first few months as leader, haemorrhaging hundreds of councillors is not going to make life any easier. Might they shift to the right and on to Reform’s turf, but by doing so risk leaving a vacuum into which the Lib Dems would happily step? Badenoch and her team will desperate hope Labour losing the Runcorn by-election dominates the media narrative – Starmer’s team will want the coverage to major on the bad night for the Tories.

Finally, as we look ahead to May 2026, what might this mean for the London-wide local government elections? With Labour at a high-water mark, barring a dramatic turnaround in the polls, the party is at risk of losing many councillors and possibly some councils. But the question is who is likely to gain the most at Labour’s expense?

The Conservatives will be hopeful of wining back the three councils lost last time – Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet – but might their vote be eaten away by Reform (in outer London) and the Lib Dems (in inner London) by just enough to save Labour in a few spots?

Reform will be particularly eager to build on their strong showing in the General Election in parts of east and south-east London where they came second in some constituencies. Labour’s other challenge is from independents motivated by events in the Middle East – these candidates put on a strong show in the General Election, running Health Secretary Wes Streeting close in his Ilford North constituency. This momentum has carried forward, and boroughs like Redbridge and Newham could see a good night for independents next May.

The Lib Dems will be eyeing up expanding their hold over south-west London, with Merton the top target. But they’ll be keen to make inroads elsewhere, particularly in Labour-held Southwark. But the biggest threat to Labour in inner London comes from the Greens who have supplanted the Lib Dems as the progressive alternative vote for those unhappy at Starmer’s government. In the General Election, Greens came second in 18 London constituencies winning a quarter of the vote in some areas. Councils like Hackney, Lambeth, Lewisham and Islington could see large gains by the Greens – the ultimate prize would be to win Hackney.