A test of recovery for the Conservatives

The May 2026 local elections represent a pivotal moment for the Conservatives. They are the first major electoral test for Kemi Badenoch since the 2025 local elections when the party lost control of 16 councils in England, securing just 20 per cent of seats contested – the second-lowest share in two decades.

Despite the latest voting intention polling from The Economist placing the Conservatives third overall, recent polling by YouGov on who would make the best prime minister places Badenoch level with Keir Starmer – ahead of both Nigel Farage and Ed Davey. Yet personal approval alone won’t be enough. If ratings don’t translate into holding core territory and making selective progress in key boroughs, leadership hopefuls may begin preparing for yet another contest, while the wider public may question whether decline continues to deepen for the UK’s oldest political party.

National narratives, local battlegrounds

Ipsos polling shows voters weigh national performance as heavily as council performance when voting locally. For the Conservatives, this points to a campaign strategy that blends visibility and local credibility with national messaging on economic competence in the face of Labour’s fiscal record.

This strategy is part of Badenoch’s broader attempt to sharpen the party’s identity. By rejecting overt centrism, she is seeking clearer dividing lines with Labour while consolidating right-of-centre support to fend off competition from Reform, particularly in parts of outer London.

Against that backdrop, success in May 2026 will hinge on limiting losses to Reform in core outer London boroughs and making progress in a small number of Labour-held councils. This would evidence that the party’s blend of national economic messaging, ideological clarity and hyper-local campaigning is beginning to stabilise its local government base.

Defining success in the capital

Given the Conservative’s current polling position and the increasingly fragmented electoral landscape, success is unlikely to be measured purely in headline gains.  The party’s London campaign can be understood through three categories:

Secure Conservative control

Kensington & Chelsea remains one of the party’s most secure boroughs in London. The Conservatives hold a clear majority, controlling the council continuously since 1964. Holding core councils like Kensington & Chelsea won’t be considered a win, but the expected outcome.

Conservative control under pressure

Bexley, Hillingdon and Bromley have long been under Conservative control – Bromley since 2001 and Bexley and Hillingdon since 2006 – with each returning Conservative majorities in 2022. However, Reform’s appeal to right-leaning voters presents a risk of vote fragmentation, shifting the Conservative focus firmly towards retention. These three boroughs would answer the question of whether the party’s ideological clarity is resonating with Reform leaning voters.

Opportunity boroughs 

A small number of Labour-held boroughs present potential opportunities, though not all carry equal strategic weight.

Westminster is widely viewed as the most credible prospect for a Conservative gain. Lost to Labour for the first time in 2022, the council is now finely balanced following Conservative by-election wins and defections, leaving Labour with a majority of only two seats. A victory here would carry significant symbolic value for the party, offsetting weaker results elsewhere.

Wandsworth and Barnet also remain competitive after long periods of Conservative control prior to 2022. Subsequent by-elections have largely seen parties hold their existing seats, although a Conservative gain in Wandsworth in 2024 suggests residual support remains. Croydon, meanwhile, remains under no overall control with a Conservative minority administration alongside directly elected mayor, Jason Perry. In each borough, outcomes are likely to be determined by highly localised dynamics rather than borough-wide swings. Even a single gain would significantly bolster Badenoch’s leadership.

Housing and growth: the Conservative balancing act

Housing remains one of the most politically sensitive issues for Conservative candidates. The prevailing message is sensible, community-led growth: an acceptance that more homes are needed, but only where delivery is supported by appropriate infrastructure and local consent.

Nationally, the Conservatives continue to support development in principle, particularly where it aligns with economic growth and housing supply. Locally, positions are more nuanced, with councils balancing pro-growth objectives against resident concerns around density, character and infrastructure capacity.

At the same time, the party’s pro-development wing is evolving. The rebranding of Conservative YIMBY as Build for Britain reflects a shift away from the YIMBY–NIMBY debate, framing housing delivery as a national economic necessity rather than a partisan issue, and one intended to resonate beyond the Conservative Party. Notably, many involved are younger Conservative activists and councillors, highlighting how debates around growth, infrastructure and home ownership may increasingly shape the party’s future direction.

The road back

For Badenoch and the Conservatives, the significance of May 2026 goes beyond individual borough results. The elections will serve as an early test of whether the party’s attempt to sharpen its identity while emphasising economic credibility and local competence is beginning to rebuild electoral trust.

A solid defensive performance in London – holding core councils while securing even limited gains – would signal that the Conservatives are beginning to stabilise and strengthen Badenoch’s standing as she seeks to define the party’s next phase. The result will not only shape the Conservative’s political trajectory, but directly impact how London boroughs approach growth, housing delivery and planning decisions well beyond May 2026.