Reform UK’s Momentum Meets the London Test

Polling lead and parliamentary foothold

Reform UK heads into the May 2026 local elections in a strong polling position. Since last May’s local elections, the party has consistently polled just under 30% nationally, placing it ahead of Labour and the Conservatives. While it has struggled to move beyond that mark – suggesting a potential ceiling – it remains the most competitive force in the current political landscape.

In London, Reform’s position is more modest but still notable: averaging around 17%, it sits in third place behind Labour and the Greens, but ahead of the Conservatives. Given the capital’s weaker terrain for right-wing insurgent parties, that performance is significant.

May 2025 marked Reform’s breakthrough moment. The party won control of 10 councils and secured an MP at the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, converting polling support into elected office. High-profile defections from the Conservatives, including Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman, have bolstered its parliamentary presence, which now stands at eight MPs.

From protest to power – strategy and success metrics

Reform enters the campaign with financial firepower and a sharpened electoral strategy. Nigel Farage has announced that the party will spend around £5m ahead of May’s local elections, focusing on direct mail and social media to mobilise non-voters.

The party’s messaging has broadened beyond immigration, with the cost of living now central to its pitch – an attempt to demonstrate a wider offer and expand beyond its core base. However, governing brings constraints. All 12 councils won by Reform in May 2025 are set to raise council tax this year, despite earlier pledges to cut or freeze bills. In Kent, councillors have acknowledged that cost-cutting reviews uncovered limited waste after years of reductions under Conservative control, shifting the focus toward efficiency savings.

This creates a potential communications challenge, with Reform needing to reconcile anti-tax positioning with fiscal reality. Reform may increasingly argue for structural reform of local government funding.

In London, success would mean winning seats across multiple boroughs and taking control of one or two traditionally Conservative outer boroughs. Nationally, expectations are higher, with several Labour-held “Red Wall” councils viewed as competitive.

Outer London as the Battleground

In London, Reform’s strategy is focused on outer boroughs with historically strong Conservative support.

Havering is a prime target. The defection of Romford MP Andrew Rosindell adds momentum, alongside three Reform councillors – all former Conservatives. The borough voted strongly to leave the European Union in 2016, aligning it more closely with Reform’s national electoral base. While Havering has traditionally leaned Conservative, council control has been less stable, with periods of No Overall Control and Havering Residents’ Association currently forming the largest grouping. This suggests volatility within the right-wing vote, with voters willing to shift between parties rather than remain loyal to one.

At a recent Romford rally, Reform pledged that if it formed a government it would give Havering residents a vote on leaving Greater London and re-joining Essex. Rosindell framed this as restoring local control over planning and ULEZ, tapping into identity politics in the borough.

Bexley and Bromley are also key battlegrounds. Both border Kent, where Reform won control last year. The party secured a Bromley by-election win in July 2025 with 34% of the vote and now has three councillors following two Conservative defections.

Reform is also targeting Hillingdon and Sutton, where softened Conservative vote share and intensified multi-party competition could create openings for a right-leaning challenger.

Recent developments in east London also suggest Reform’s appeal is not limited to disaffected Conservatives. Sir Robin Wales, former Mayor of Newham, and Clive Furness, a former Newham councillor and executive member, have left Labour to join the party. Furness has been selected as Reform’s candidate for Mayor of Newham, while Wales will act as Reform’s London director of local government.

Overall, Reform will firmly be on the attack. With concentrated support in outer boroughs, it does not need to top the London-wide vote to convert momentum into seats.

Housing and Infrastructure policy

Reform’s housing and infrastructure position is mixed and often localised.

Nationally, the party argues that Britain has under-built housing for decades and that excessive planning restrictions have constrained supply. Simon Dudley, former interim chair of Homes England, joined Reform, arguing that neither Labour nor the Conservatives can resolve the housing crisis and citing chronic under-building, planning barriers and immigration pressures as drivers of high prices and rents – a notable endorsement given his background in housing delivery.

On paper, Reform supports housing and infrastructure delivery, including high-density housing in appropriate areas. However, this support comes with caveats: opposition to building on green belt land, prioritising social housing for British citizens, and scepticism toward large-scale net zero infrastructure projects.

The party has opposed renewable energy schemes, including wind and solar farms. Reform-led Durham County Council has refused six solar farm applications, two of which were subsequently approved on appeal.

The key question post-May will be operational rather than rhetorical: in councils controlled or influenced by Reform, will planning approval rates increase or decrease? Will decision times accelerate or slow? The answers will reveal whether Reform’s housing and infrastructure stance proves pragmatic in government or remains politically conditional.

Conclusion

Reform UK enters the May 2026 local elections with momentum, strong polling and growing institutional presence. Its success in 2025 demonstrated an ability to translate national support into representation, while continued defections from both the Conservatives and Labour suggest the party is broadening its appeal.

However, the elections will test whether Reform can move from insurgent challenger to durable governing force. Nationally, the party will look to consolidate gains and capture Labour-held councils in the North and Midlands. In London, success is likely to be more incremental, with breakthroughs dependent on concentrated support in outer boroughs traditionally dominated by the Conservatives.

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