The Conservatives’ 2025 Conference: Last chance saloon?

The Conservatives wrapped up their conference last week in Manchester, with the party polling third (at around 16%) behind Labour and Reform UK, casting a long shadow over proceedings. With polls showing half of Tory members don’t want Kemi Badenoch to lead them into the next general election, and nearly two-thirds supporting a pact with Reform, expectations entering conference were low. Nigel Farage’s announcement on the eve of the final day that 20 Conservative councillors from across England had defected to Reform didn’t make the party’s task any easier.

And yet, the mood on the ground wasn’t entirely downbeat. While Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride delivered his speech to a sparse room and corporate turnout was notably thin, the fringe circuit told a different story. Most of the party faithful in attendance brought with them a noticeable degree of energy. Some have described the conference as “a holiday from reality” – and when expectations are this low, perhaps the only way is up.

Maggie’s memory looms large

The legacy of Margaret Thatcher – who would have turned 100 years old this week – was front and centre. From a “Maggie’s 100^th” party to a pop-up “Thatcher museum”, the Iron Lady’s presence was felt not just in memorabilia, but in many of the speeches invoking her name as a touchstone for Conservative renewal. This reminder of past conviction politics comes at a time when the party is still searching for a clear ideological direction.

Bold policies

Badenoch used her platform to commit the Conservatives to leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – a policy which looks to be firmly pitched at those considering a shift to Reform UK. This commitment goes further than the Government who have indicated they are considering reforming the UK’s relationship with the ECHR, while remaining signatories. Badenoch’s team also unveiled a £47bn savings plan and proposed a new ‘golden rule’ for economic policy: using half of any savings to reduce the deficit, and half to boost growth.

Home truths

On housing, there were some signs that the party is starting to grapple with the role it could play in rebuilding the Conservative brand – particularly among younger voters. In her closing speech, Badenoch surprised many (and delighted her own ranks) by proposing to scrap stamp duty on primary residences, describing it as an “un-Conservative tax” which currently generates over £11bn a year for HMRC.

The proposal is framed as an intergenerational offer – appealing to younger voters struggling to afford homes, particularly in high-cost areas like London, and older homeowners deterred from downsizing by punitive tax liabilities. With the country in a well-documented housing crisis and homeownership increasingly out of reach for many, could this be the start of a more deliberate effort to win back younger voters while still appealing to the party’s older base?

Speaking at a fringe event, Shadow Housing Minister Paul Holmes even welcomed Labour’s planning reforms. His comments offered a rare moment of cross-party alignment – though the party’s broader stance remains cautious, as seen in its opposition to the Government’s Planning and Infrastructure Bill. While there is some recognition that planning reform is needed, consensus on how far to go is still far from settled within the Conservative ranks.

Cleverly positioning?

Shadow Housing Secretary James Cleverly used his speech to argue that current affordable housing requirements “prevent anything from being built” – echoing concerns from developers, particularly in the capital, about viability challenges. He pledged to rewrite the London Plan if the Conservatives win the 2028 Mayoral election, with promises to cut red tape, unlock brownfield land, and build homes near transport hubs.

He also laid into Mayor of London Sadiq Khan’s housing record, highlighting that just 5,000 private homes are forecast to be built across the whole of London this year – against a target of 88,000. And in a swipe at his opposite number, Cleverly mocked Housing Secretary Steve Reed’s “Build, Baby, Build” cap, claiming a more appropriate slogan would be “Block, Baby, Block” given Reed’s opposition to new homes being built in his own constituency.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the speech fuelled speculation about Cleverly’s intentions regarding a possible future mayoral run. When asked by the BBC, he didn’t rule it out, saying he would be “stupid not to think about it.” London Assembly Member Thomas Turrell added fuel to the fire, telling a London Councils fringe event that he wants Cleverly to “man up” and go for the job.

New direction or more of the same?

This year’s conference did deliver some flagship policy announcements – necessary for a party that is still at risk of appearing irrelevant. Some proposals, such as the ECHR exit and stamp duty reform, appear aimed at winning back Reform UK voters – offering a more palatable version of the right-wing agenda to traditional Tories without the more populist edges.

But credibility remains the party’s biggest hurdle. Can the Conservatives persuade the public that – after 14 years in office – they are truly capable of change? Badenoch has made “renewal” the central theme of her leadership, but a general election could still be four years away, and the more immediate focus will be on the results of next year’s local elections. Further losses of the scale seen last May could put her position at risk and with the party desperate to avoid yet another leadership contest, the stakes are high.

Perhaps Lord Frost in The Telegraph sums it up best, describing the Conservative Party as “back from the brink – but there’s still a long way to go.”