The Independent Factor

A Quiet Shift

Independent candidates may not usually even register with many voters, but in these local elections, that could change. While they are unlikely to cause too much of a stir across London, their concerted efforts in a few boroughs may cause some upset and in the case of No Overall Control (NOC) authorities – which we are likely to see a lot more of – independent councillors could even end up holding the balance of power.

The latest voting intention polling shows that in London, only around 3% of voters say that they would vote for independents. This figure has gradually fallen over the past six months or so, while the Greens’ has increased, perhaps indicating that those who were previously inclined to vote for independent candidates have veered towards the Greens following the election of Zack Polanksi as leader.

While a very small number of people say that they are going to vote for independents, what we are seeing are increasingly professionalised independent movements in certain boroughs. Rather than independent candidates being individuals going out on their own and standing on hyper-local issues, parties are being started. Just look at the Enfield Community Independents, the Newham Independents, the Islington Community Independents and the Redbridge Independents, all of which have quite slick operations, with an impressive online and social media presence.

Labour in the firing line

To understand where this first started, it is helpful to look back to the 2024 General Election, when independent candidates came in second place in six constituencies in the capital, including in the Prime Minister’s own seat, as well as that of the Health Secretary. While only one independent candidate won a seat in London (Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North), they had a clear impact and slashed the majorities of several MPs. Health Secretary Wes Streeting saw his majority fall to just over 500 votes and his own concerns about clinging on to his seat at the next general election have been made clear in recent weeks. What is particularly interesting about those six independents who placed second is that their campaigns focused predominantly on foreign affairs and events in the Middle East, rather than local or national issues.

Since then, independents have won by-elections in three London boroughs, taking the seat in each instance from Labour – the governing party of the borough: in Newham (September 2025), Redbridge and Hounslow (both March 2025).

These independent movements seem to be campaigning on a range of issues, ranging from the hyper-local (Low Traffic Neighbourhoods and bins) to the international (pro-Gaza and anti-Trump). The overriding theme of all of these parties – which all seem very closely aligned – is that they are very critical of Labour, both at the local and national levels, with much of their campaigning highlighting the party’s perceived failures.

Planning on the frontline

As for their stance on the built environment, a deep dive into their online presence shows that these independent movements are using development and housing in their campaigning efforts. From promises to deliver more social housing to concerns about ‘overdevelopment’ and plans to legally challenge proposals for ‘high-rise’ flats, it looks like they will be using planning issues as a major part of their platforms. If they win enough seats to have presence on a planning committee, their influence on these matters could be significant.

Small numbers, big leverage?

While they won’t be aiming to win overall control of a local authority, these independent candidates will be seeking to capitalise on the unpopularity of the two main parties and hoping to pick up a decent number of seats. With enough councillors, they could suddenly end up in a position of importance, especially in a case of a No Overall Control (NOC) authority. In Newham, which has a directly-elected Mayor, Leader of the Newham Independents Cllr Mehmood Mirza declared that he would be standing in the mayoral contest in December 2025. With incumbent Rokshana Fiaz (Labour) not seeking reelection, this role will be firmly in the Independents’ sights.

Don’t underestimate independents. While they may not dominate the headlines, in an increasingly fragmented political landscape, their concentrated efforts mean that they may disrupt the main parties’ plans.

Expert insight, intelligence gathering and knowledge sharing is in LCA’s lifeblood and ensures that our clients receive the highest quality strategic advice and counsel. Through regular and customised briefings and events, we help clients navigate through what can be a confusing and fast-changing landscape. If you’d like to discuss what any of these developments could mean for your organisation or your projects, contact us at insight@thisislca.com